AUD/USD To Trade Lower

http://www.fxfxfx.com 2010-01-22 08:06:20

AUD/USD to trade lower. Pair weighed by unwinding of long-AUD carry trades on increased risk aversion, softer commodity prices (CRB spot index closed down 1.97 yesterday at 277.51 as fears of China tightening rates weighed). But AUD/USD losses tempered by weaker USD sentiment, Aussie-U.S. yield gap, sovereign rebalancing of FX reserves in favor of AUD, expectations RBA will keep raising rates in coming months, positions adjustment before weekend. Data focus: 0030 GMT Australia 4Q international trade prices. AUD/USD daily chart negative-biased as stochastics falling from overbought; MACD staged bearish crossover against its exponential moving average; 5-day moving average staged bearish crossover against 15-day. Support at 0.8961 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8733-0.9330 Dec. 23-Jan. 14 advance); breach would target 0.8938 (Jan. 4 low), then 0.8874 (76.4% retracement) and 0.8733 (Dec. 23 trough). Resistance at 0.9080 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 0.9146 (yesterday''''s high), then 0.9170 (previous base set Monday), 0.9242 (Wednesday''''s high) and 0.9281 (Tuesday''''s high).

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Keywords：AUD USD